Overview
This book discusses the Indian economic crisis and brings out what went wrong and the correction necessary for getting the economy back to high growth trajectory, leading to economic transformation. To do so, the book covers trends in performance of Indian economy since the Global Financial Crisis to the COVID-19 effect, bringing out factors that have determined the same.
The book questions the approach to macroeconomic policy of both the RBI and the government and brings out what it takes for macroeconomic policy to be supportive of high growth. It contains revealing contrasts with East Asia and China, although India has the same potential to grow with an expansion of manufacturing. Overall, it argues that macroeconomic policies (as much as structural, industrial, and trade policies) have been deficient and even good initiatives on the industrial policy and trade flounder for the lack of a strategic approach to macroeconomics. The book highlights the special opportunities present in an emerging economy with vast under and utilised labour and the macroeconomic policy initiatives that can take advantage of this key feature.
It covers the macroeconomic data on growth using multiple indicators, then the external shocks and the internal policy measures/responses; besides, GVA/GDP, credit, exports, external transactions, interest and policy rates, yields, exchange rates, money, capital flows, indices of industrial sector, price indices and inflation, government expenditures, tax rates, fiscal deficits, market uncertainty measures to present a holistic picture of the economy and the shocks and policy actions that have followed. The book uses an innovative method of presentation and the consistency of the trends/stances of both monetary and fiscal policy using these large number of variables. It discusses the debate on overestimation of GDP/GVA growth estimates over the years from 2011-12 to about 2016-17 comprehensively. There is special coverage of GST with a comparison with China. Coverage also includes performance since the COVID-19 crisis again using a large number of indicators and an explanation for the same in terms of the limitations of the government’s initiatives to counteract.
The book is a quick and ready reference of what has happened in macroeconomic terms to those interested in the relevant facts. It is of interest to international economists, policy analysts, and investors whose need to understand that the Indian economy in macroeconomic terms and in terms of the stances and penchant of the government and the RBI is of value.
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